"Forecasts of the Demographic Behavior of the Rural Population Based on the Indicators of the 2000-2010s (Based on Materials from the South of Central Russia)"

Kanishchev, Valery Vladimirovich, Kunavin, Konstantin Sergeevich

Abstract

Based on the demographic trends of recent decades, the authors try to determine the prospects for the main indicators of population development in the rural environment of 11 regions of southern Central Russia. A relatively favorable forecast for an increase in the number of births is associated with the entry into marriageable age of a relatively large generation in the second half of the 2000s - the first half of the 2010s. The increase in the number of deaths is presumably based on the aging trend of the rural population and especially the increase in the number of people over 70 years old. It is assumed that increased mortality will predetermine negative natural increase. Uncertain trends of recent decades do not allow for a clear forecast of the migration balance. The authors identify the decisive role of natural growth in comparison with mechanical growth. The article stipulates that the implementation of forecasts may be affected by such a "non-linear effect" as the coronavirus pandemic.

Keywords: historical demography, south of Central Russia, forecasts, nonlinear effects in society.

Full text PDF

List of literature

1. Dyachkov V.L., Kanishchev V.V. Prognoz rosta naseleniya Rossii na XX v. i sostoyavshayasya realnost. Vzglyad snizu iz tambovskoj krestyanskoj sredy // Ineternum. 2011. S. 56 - 74.
2. Dyachkov V.L., Kanishchev V.V., Okatov A.V., Sletkov I.A. Zov predkov i migracionnye mechtaniya: geografiya immigracij i emigracij v tambovskih selah nachala XXI v. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Istoriya. Politologiya. Sociologiya. 2020. S. 23-29.
3. ZHukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. Modelirovanie demograficheskih processov v pozdnej sovetskoj derevne: 1959 1989 gg. // Istoricheskaya informatika. 2019. S. 43 - 73.
4. Kanishchev V. V., ZHirov N. A., Kunavin K. S. Istoricheskie faktory formirovaniya nalichnogo demograficheskogo povedeniya naseleniya yuga Centralnoj Rossii vo vtoroj polovine XX nachale XXI v. // Istoriya: fakty i simvoly. 2019. Vyp.3. T.3 (20). S. 43-61.
5. Kanishchev V.V., Okatov A.V., Svetlakov D.V., Sletkov I.A. Russkaya selskaya semya kak otrazhenie sovremennyh demograficheskih processov (po materialam sociologicheskih oprosov 2018 i 2019 gg. v Tambovskoj oblasti) // Socialno-ekonomicheskie yavleniya i processy. 2019. S. 32-53.
6. Medkov V.M. Demograficheskie prognozy OON dlya mira i Rossii // Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Ser. 18. Sociologiya i politologiya. 2008. S. 135-151.
7. Naselenie Rossii. Ezhegodnye demograficheskie doklady. 2005-2017 gg. - M. Izdatelskij dom Vysshej shkoly ekonomiki, 2007-2019.
8. Tulskaya oblast v cifrah 2017: Krat. stat. sb. Tula: Tulastat, 2018. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York, 2007.

Citation

Kanishchev, Valery Vladimirovich, Kunavin, Konstantin Sergeevich "Forecasts of the Demographic Behavior of the Rural Population Based on the Indicators of the 2000-2010s (Based on Materials from the South of Central Russia)" Agrarian History, Number 3, 2020 P. 21 - 35.